Northern lights and latitudes are closely intertwined, as the best chances of witnessing this mesmerizing phenomenon are found near the polar regions. While it’s possible to predict auroras to some extent, solar activity is complex and variable, and long-term forecasts are challenging. Short-term predictions can be accurate, but that may not be very helpful if you need to travel. If you want to give yourself the best chance of catching the Northern Lights, you should consider latitude, as well as time of year (you need to make sure there will be darkness).
KP1+ at 70°, Camera pointing NW
KP8 at 52°N, Camera pointing SE
Auroral Zone and Auroral Oval
There are specific regions called auroral zones around Earth’s geomagnetic poles where aurora are most frequently observed. These zones can be found in the North and South around 60-75 degrees. The auroral oval is a region around each geomagnetic pole where aurora are most likely to occur. Green means low probability and red means high probability. The position and size of the oval can expand and contract depending on solar activity.
There are a couple of other basic things to note. One is that geomagnetic latitude differs slightly from geographic latitude. The oval is not a perfect circle because the Earth’s magnetic field is not perfectly symmetrical or uniform. It is tilted slightly relative to the planet’s rotational axis. The second is that the differences in speed, density, and magnetic orientation of the solar wind will affect what you see and where.
NOAA’s prediction for the May 10, 2024 geomagnetic storm. The oval on the right with a lot of red extends further down into the United States, quite lower than 60°.
How to Determine if You Will See Aurora
There are some quick ways to know if you will see Aurora. First, you need darkness and (mostly) clear skies. You can use a site like SpaceWeatherLive.com to have an overview of the KP index, auroral oval, and auroral data. There is a lot to learn, but here are some basic ideas to get you started. If the auroral oval looks red and it’s over your location, you have a pretty good chance. If you are looking at the graphs (I love graphs, but I know many do not), you want the Bz to be in the red/negative. What the KP index tells you will be dependent on Latitude as you’ll see in the examples below. Where I live at 51° N, I usually need a KP4 or higher to see something interesting. Sometimes with a KP2 there might be a low green band on the horizon.
You can look at webcams to see if there is activity somewhere and this can be helpful if it’s not quite dark where you are, or you are trying to find clear skies. I quite often look at the Sunshine Aurora cam. I don’t use any aurora forecasting apps.
If you want to learn more and join a community of Aurora enthusiasts, you can try to find local Facebook groups. The Alberta Aurora Chasers (AAC) and Upper Midwest Aurora Chasers (UMAC) are two that I belong to. Though it’s Alberta focused, AAC has people from all around the world, and it is a great place for beginners to find resources and learn from the “Guides” section. UMAC is an advanced aurora group and a good place for those in the upper midwest, which is relatively south of the oval.
Aurora at Different Latitudes
KP1+/KP2- at 70°N
There is a reason I love going back to Utsjoki, Finland. All three of these images were taken on the same night. If you have clear skies and darkness, you are in the best place with the highest chances of seeing Northern Lights. The show started at nautical twilight and later in the evening we captured a corona. I took a screen shot of the data just before the corona appeared, and it showed it was only recording KP1+ at the time. There were so many colours and such a variety of structures throughout the night. If photographing aurora is on your bucket list, I highly recommend joining me for Spring Light in Lapland.
KP2+ at 50°N
The furthest south I have photographed Northern Lights is at just over 50°N in Dinosaur Provincial Park. The aurora did not have much structure and was close to the horizon. I was lucky enough to catch the full arc of STEVE on this night, though. The May 10, 2024 geomagnetic storm was so strong, Aurora was seen as far south as Florida, 24°N.
KP3+ at 60°N
The furthest North that I have photographed Northern Lights in Canada was during a commercial shoot at Andrew Lake Lodge. The lodge is at the northern edge of Alberta and has wonderful dark skies. The biggest challenge was getting clear skies. While I was at the Lodge I saw aurora every night it was clear and the KP indexes only ranged from 1-3.
KP2+ at 64°N
During my first day in Iceland I drove over 6 hours to get to an area with clear skies because I wanted a chance at aurora. It was also my introduction to the ridiculous winds there (I was wondering if the sand would scour my lens). There was a lot of moonlight due to an 80% moon to the left of the camera, but there were a few moments when the aurora stood out brightly. The rest of the week was cloudy, and on my final night a KP8 event fizzled out before it got dark. That’s just how it goes sometimes. But if you don’t get out, you definitely have no chance.
KP5 at 51°N
A typical good show at my latitude. The aurora tends to stay in the Northern portion of the sky. There can be a lot of structures and some purple/magenta colour along the usual greens.
KP5 at 70°N
Looking south during a KP5 event while teaching a workshop in Finland. It’s in my top five Northern Lights experiences. I’m not sure if it should hold the first position, there’s a panorama from a KP7 night at Bow Lake in Alberta below that competes. This was also the night I photographed Brushstroke.
KP6+ at 51°N
This was taken during a workshop where the goal was capturing the Milky Way. For most of the night I was worried we wouldn’t see the Milk Way at all because the Northern Lights were washing out the sky. Eventually the galaxy become visible with a corona over top of Mount Rundle.
KP7 at 51°N
A 360° panorama of the best aurora show I had seen until I went to Finland. The mountain in the middle is Crowfoot Mountain, a south view. The entire sky was full of aurora from twilight to twilight.
KP8 at 52°N
A lot of the world was able to see the May 10, 2024 geomagnetic storm. It was one of the brightest and most expansive in over 20 years. It was “only” at KP8 when it was dark in the Canadian Rockies. Most of the activity was in the Southern portion of the sky and it was challenging to find clear skies.